Author Topic: 2016 Election  (Read 90444 times)

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Offline Yokto

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #375 on: December 13, 2015, 11:44:48 am »
That is not really a explanation. At least not a good one :P
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Offline Slinky

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #376 on: December 13, 2015, 02:39:30 pm »
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YNc2o30IIg" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YNc2o30IIg</a>

Offline Cyst

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #377 on: December 13, 2015, 07:19:34 pm »
Primary, or the whole thing?
The whole damn thing. Calling it, just like I called the Boston Bombing while everyone was saying it was just a "steam pipe".
Oh, and a better question: Are you saying that you support Trump, or just that you think he'll win?
I am an adamant anarcho-transhumanist. I'd never support Trump, but I see trends, historically and actively, that lead me to believe he *will* become PotUS 2016. I hope for everyone that he doesn't, but still.
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Offline PatMan33

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #378 on: December 13, 2015, 07:56:07 pm »
just like I called the Boston Bombing while everyone was saying it was just a "steam pipe"


Offline dndfreak

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #379 on: December 13, 2015, 08:59:59 pm »
Probably the most damaging thing to Trump's campaign would be his father. A large part of Trump's current support seem to accept his brand of casual racism, but his father was an active KKK member who refused to rent or sell homes to black people. If someone starts launching attack ads comparing Donald to Frederick, I feel like it would do considerable damage. 2016 isn't on lock quite yet.

Offline PatMan33

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #380 on: December 13, 2015, 09:36:05 pm »
Doubtful. Attacking Donald Trump's father would be a waste of money and effort, though I wouldn't be surprised if someone tried.

It's a token attack that would appeal to people that already aren't voting for Trump. There are plenty of real reasons to not vote for Trump and they come out of the man's mouth every time he speaks. No child should be chained down by the sins of their parents.

Offline Inkling

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #381 on: December 13, 2015, 09:39:32 pm »
Under normal circumstances bringing up Papa Trump could be damaging.  But under normal circumstances the things Trump has said and done himself would sink a campaign a hundred times over, so I doubt the effectiveness of that tactic.

I still don't think he gets the nomination, but it's mid December, he's still here, and I'm getting increasingly concerned.  Help me Nate Silver, you're my only hope!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
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Offline PatMan33

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #382 on: December 13, 2015, 09:44:00 pm »
What you're saying is that we should only be worried if we tune back in in May and Trump is still in the race?

Offline Inkling

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #383 on: December 13, 2015, 09:52:29 pm »
I'm saying that, according to Silver, a large chunk of the primary electorate haven't made up their minds yet.  And if they aren't following the race closely they may only know Trump or one or two other candidates because he's sucking up all the coverage.  When it gets closer to primary time in their state, more voters will take a closer look.
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Offline PatMan33

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #384 on: December 13, 2015, 09:54:01 pm »
There are other people running?

Offline Krakow Sam

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #385 on: December 14, 2015, 12:54:39 am »
They had a round of local government elections in France right after the Paris attacks and in the first "round" (not sure how exactly the French system works) their far-right nationalist party apparently did really well, but then in the vote that actually counts they were completely slaughtered. So I think the electorate maybe just knows when a vote matters and when it doesn't and like to **** with people.
Sam is basically right, he's just cranky.

Offline Yokto

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #386 on: December 14, 2015, 01:31:41 am »
You will likely see the more idealogical extremes get more votes in the primaries. I would not be that suprised if Trump actually wins the primaries. But when up against the democrats I think he will fail. If it goes that far.
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Offline dndfreak

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #387 on: December 14, 2015, 08:58:16 am »
https://boingboing.net/2015/12/09/trump-threatens-independent-ru.html

So apparently, if Trump fails to secure the GOP nomination, he plans on running as an independent, splitting his party's vote and basically guaranteeing Clinton '16. Something tells me Trump's won the primaries, given his reputation for refusing to back down on threats. Any normal politician wouldn't have the funding for a move like this, but Trump isn't a politician.

Offline PatMan33

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #388 on: December 14, 2015, 09:12:24 am »
But he signed the pledge saying he wouldn't.

:O

Or does that not count anymore because it was more than two weeks ago?

Offline dndfreak

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Re: 2016 Elections
« Reply #389 on: December 14, 2015, 09:26:25 am »
It's pretty extensive, but Trump has created his own loophole. And I think Trump knows he'd lose as an independent. With those low odds, any lateral thinker will tell you the only way to win in a system that won't work in your favor is to find a new system. Trump isn't a polititian and I somehow doubt after this he'd shoot for a nomination in 2020. He isn't afraid of burning bridges with either party. He wouldn't run as an independent to win, but to undermine the validity of the entire election, which is why he'd have no qualms breaking the pledge. If he can't win, no one wins.